Mortgage Rates Forecast 2026 Rockwall TX: Why Experts Predict Further Declines Heading Into Next Year (December 2025 Update)
You’ve watched mortgage rates finally start dropping in late 2025 — and if you’re buying or selling in Rockwall, Fate, Heath, or anywhere around Lake Ray Hubbard, you’re probably asking: **Is this trend going to continue into 2026? And how much lower can they actually go?**
The answer from every major forecast is yes — **rates are expected to ease further throughout 2026**, with most experts calling for averages in the low-6% to upper-5% range by year-end.
The key driver everyone is watching? The **10-year Treasury yield** and the shrinking “spread” between it and mortgage rates.
Here’s exactly why the outlook is so positive for Rockwall-area buyers (and why sellers should list sooner rather than later).
The Proven Link Between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates
For over 50 years, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have closely tracked the 10-year Treasury yield — it’s one of the most reliable relationships in finance.
When the Treasury yield drops → mortgage rates usually follow.
When it rises → rates go up.
The “normal” gap (spread) between the two has historically averaged about **1.76 percentage points (176 basis points)**.
But the last few years of economic uncertainty pushed that spread much wider — which is exactly why mortgage rates stayed stubbornly high even as the Treasury yield came down.
Good News: The Spread Is Finally Shrinking (And the Treasury Yield Is Still Falling)
As of December 6, 2025:
– 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.11–4.14%
– Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: ~6.07–6.19% (Freddie Mac, Zillow, NerdWallet data)
That means the current spread is around 2.0–2.1% — still elevated, but narrowing fast as economic fears ease.
When you combine:
1. A Treasury yield that’s expected to drift lower in 2026, AND
2. A spread returning toward the normal ~1.76%
…experts see clear room for mortgage rates to keep falling.
Simple math: 4.0% Treasury + 1.76% normal spread = ~5.76% mortgage rate potential.
That’s why forecasts from Realtor.com, Fannie Mae, MBA, and others are calling for rates to average around 6.3% in 2026, with many economists saying upper-5s is absolutely possible by late next year if the economy stays on track.
What This Means for Rockwall TX Home Buyers & Sellers
Lower rates in 2026 = significantly more buying power.
A drop from today’s ~6.1% to even 5.75% puts tens of thousands of extra dollars in purchasing power back in your pocket — enough to move up from a $450K home to a $500K+ home in many Rockwall neighborhoods.
And for sellers: the longer you wait hoping for even lower rates, the more competition you’ll face as buyers flood back into the market.
We’re already seeing multiple offers return on well-priced, move-in-ready homes in Waterscape, Breezy Hill, and the lakefront communities.
Bottom Line from 2A Realty Group
Rates have already come down meaningfully in late 2025 — and virtually every expert agrees **2026 will bring gradual but steady improvement**.
This isn’t speculation — it’s exactly what happened in previous cycles when the spread normalized and the Treasury yield cooperated.
Whether you’re ready to buy your first home in Rockwall ISD, upgrade to a lake property, or finally sell and downsize/relocate — now is the time to get your plan in place.
Reach out to 2A Realty Group today for your free 2026 Mortgage Rate & Home Buying/Selling Strategy Session.
We’ll give you real-time rate alerts, run custom buying power scenarios, and show you exactly how to win in the Rockwall market as rates continue to improve.
Don’t wait for rates to drop more — let’s make the lower rates work for you right now. Contact Jorge Avila today!
