Will the Rockwall TX Housing Market Crash in 2026? Expert Forecasts Say NO (December 2025 Update)
If you’re seeing doomsday headlines or TikToks screaming “housing crash incoming,” it’s easy to get nervous — especially here in Rockwall where values have climbed so much in recent years.
But here’s the truth I’m telling every client right now: **the data does NOT show a crash coming — nationally or in Rockwall/DFW**.
What it DOES show is slower, healthier, more sustainable growth heading into 2026–2030.
Yes, some markets will cool more than others.
Yes, we’ll likely see flatter appreciation than the crazy 2020–2022 years.
But nationwide — and especially in high-demand areas like Rockwall, Fate, Heath, and Royse City — **experts unanimously agree: home prices are still going up, not down**.
What the Latest Expert Forecasts Actually Say (Q4 2025 Data)
The just-released forecasts from Fannie Mae, Realtor.com, Zillow, NAR, and others all paint the same picture:
– Fannie Mae (Q3 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey): Average home price growth of ~2.4% in 2025 and ~2.1–2.8% in 2026, continuing with modest gains through 2029
– Realtor.com 2026 Housing Forecast (released December 2025): Existing-home sales finally rising again in 2026 (+1.7% nationally), inventory up, mortgage rates trending lower → more balanced market with continued price growth
– Zillow (December 2025): U.S. home values flat-to-slightly-up in 2025, then +1.2% in 2026 and steady gains after
– North Texas / DFW-specific forecasts: 3–4% price growth expected in 2026 (Texas A&M Real Estate Center, local MLS trends, NTREIS data)
Even the most conservative experts are NOT predicting declines — they’re calling for 8–15% cumulative growth nationally through 2030.
In Rockwall specifically? We’re still one of the strongest submarkets in DFW because of:
– Top-rated Rockwall ISD schools
– Lake Ray Hubbard lifestyle
– Continued job growth and in-migration to North Texas
Our local prices are projected to outperform the national average again in 2026–2028.
This Is NOT 2008 — Here’s Why Rockwall Prices Won’t Crash
The “what goes up must come down” crowd keeps comparing today to 2008.
That’s just wrong.
Back then we had:
– Massive overbuilding
– Subprime lending madness
– Millions of bad loans
Today in Rockwall and nationwide we have:
– Historic UNDER-building (we’re still millions of homes short)
– Much stricter lending standards
– Record-high homeowner equity (average Rockwall homeowner has ~$250K–$350K+ equity)
– The “lock-in effect” finally thawing as rates drop → more inventory, but still below normal levels
Bottom line: there simply aren’t enough homes — and demand in Rockwall isn’t going away.
Bottom Line from 2A Realty Group
I’ve been helping Rockwall families buy and sell homes for years, through every kind of market.
Right now the question isn’t “Will prices crash?”
The question is “How much will they still go up — and how do we position you to win?”
Whether you’re thinking of selling your Rockwall home in 2026 (and worried about timing the top) or finally ready to buy now that rates are better and inventory is improving — let’s talk facts, not fear.
Reach out to me, Jorge Avila, at 2A Realty Group today for your free 2026 Rockwall Market Strategy Session.
I’ll give you the real-time local data (not national headlines), current value of your specific home, and the exact plan to make your next move the best one yet.
The market isn’t crashing — it’s normalizing in buyers’ and sellers’ favor.
Don’t sit on the sidelines and miss it. Contact me today.
